Blackjack Combinatorial Analysis by Simulation

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Apheat, Blackjack Tips
One of the most valuable resources for researching blackjack is appendix 4 at the Wizard of Odds website.  In that appendix, Mike Shackleford gives the combinatorial analysis (CA) for the version of six-deck blackjack most commonly played by high-rollers. I used Shackleford’s work in my analysis of Don Johnson’s method for beating loss rebates (see this post). Recently, a reader of this blog asked if I knew a program that gave the CA for other rule sets. I asked Mike how he did his CA and he told me that his results in Appendix 4 were obtained by simulation. In other words, he ran a bunch of rounds, recorded the number of times each event occurred, imported that data into a spread sheet, and completed his analysis from there. In this post, I present CA by simulation for six other blackjack rule sets.

In what follows, I use the following abbreviations:
  • 2D (two decks), 6D (six decks).
  • DOA (double on anything), player can double on any first two cards.
  • DAS (double after split), player can double after splitting.
  • H17, dealer must hit soft-17.
  • S17, dealer must stand on soft-17.
  • LSR (late surrender), player can surrender his initial two cards after the dealer checks for blackjack.

The results I present below were obtained by simulations of four billion (4,000,000,000) hands of blackjack each.

Two Decks

The following tables give the CA by simulation for the following rule sets:
  • 2D, H17, DOA, DAS
  • 2D, S17, DOA, DAS
  • 2D, S17, DOA, DAS, LSR
 
blackjack 2d h17 doa das
 
blackjack 2d s17 doa das
 
blackjack 2d s17 doa das lsr

 
The following table summarizes the two-deck results:


simulation summary 2 decks doa das
 
 

Six Decks
The following tables give the CA by simulation for the following rule sets:
 

  • 6D, H17, DOA, DAS
  • 6D, S17, DOA, DAS
  • 6D, S17, DOA, DAS, LSR
 
blackjack 6d h17 doa das

blackjack 6d s17 doa das
 
blackjack 6d s17 das lsr

 
The following table summarizes the six-deck results:

 
simulation summary 6 decks doa das

 

Spread Sheet

It may be tough for the reader to use the results given above when they appear in an image file. Transcribing those results is an unnecessary burden. For that reason, I prepared a spread sheet that can be downloaded that contains all the results presented above.

I hereby give permission for unlimited and unrestricted use of this spreadsheet:

Blackjack_CA_by_Sim