Euro odds: Who will win at this summer's Euro 2016?
By Anonymous
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As we roll into June, it can only mean one thing – a footballing feast in France. The home nation kicks off Euro 2016 on 10th June against Romania in the Stade de France, and the sporting world is licking its lips to see who will come out on top in the tournament.
But when it comes to the Euros, will predicting this year's winners be like choosing a number on the roulette – pot luck? And which star name will play the perfect poker hand and come out as the Player of the Tournament?
We've taken a look at a few key areas that everyone in the football world is talking about.
The French footballing legacy will live long on the global front. Greats like Michel Platini (solely based on his on-field skill, not his recent behaviour with FIFA – sit on the naughty step, Michel), Zinedine Zidane, Thierry Henry and Jean-Pierre Papin are all from the land of wine and cheese and are all immortalised for footballing greatness.
The French squad for this competition isn't too shabby either. Paul Pogba and Blaise Matuidi anchor their midfield, whilst Antoine Griezmann, Anthony Martial and the devilishly handsome Oliver Giroud give them firepower up top. Captain Hugo Lloris was on inspirational form between the sticks for Tottenham this season, and the experience of Patrice Evra and Bacary Sagna will help keep the young guns level-headed. Only a fool would write off Didier Deschamps' men.
France is a country that’s fiercely proud of its supporting heritage – check out the burly rugby union stars crying their eyes out whilst singing the national anthem. It’s raw emotion – so surely it has to help that this year's European Championship is in their own backyard?
Going by France's recent sporting history, you'd have to say yes.
Cast your mind back to 1998 – the year that Geri left the Spice Girls, Bill Clinton was in the dog house with Hillary, and World Cup fever gripped us all. France '98 is seen as the epitome of high-class football. Not only was it the pinnacle of talent on the pitch, but it also had a great supporting video game and Dario G's 'Carnaval de Paris' as its anthem. But forget Ronaldo and the Brazilian flair, there was only ever one team that was going to win – France. The home support, and exceptionally good squad, led them to a 3-0 win over their South American counterparts. France had won the World Cup at home – a feat achieved in only six of the 20 editions. But that feat was achieved on the global scale of a 32-team competition, can any team make the same bold claim in the Euros?
Out of the 14 European Championship tournaments, only three home nations have won the trophy – Spain in 1964, the Italians in 1968 and, you guessed it, France in 1984.
The previously-mentioned Platini was the catalyst for this French success, scoring nine goals in the competition – six more than any other player! Back then, the tournament only had eight teams competing, but heavyweights such as West Germany, Spain and Portugal all took part.
When we look at the stats, France has won three major trophies – two European Championships and one World Cup. Two of these triumphs have taken place in Paris city centre – the other came at Euro 2000, held in neighbouring Belgium and the Netherlands - hardly a long trek from the French border.
Take into consideration the major tournaments when France has been the home nation, and you start to think it's written in the stars for a Les Bleus win – hosted four, won two. A 50% win ratio in home tournaments is very, very impressive – as decent a bet as going for red or black on roulette.
For us, it'd be hard to see France not getting to at least the semi-finals. With a relatively easy group (Switzerland, Romania and Albania – nothing to frighten a football powerhouse) you can expect them to coast into the quarters in a convincing fashion. But from there on in, it's down to the home crowds to get them going.
And with over 80,000 fans bellowing out 'La Marseillaise', you'd be backing the boys in blue against any opposition.
You could pretty much close your eyes, point at the German team sheet and blindly pick a potential star player – that's how good their squad is. From magic Mesut Özil pulling the midfield strings, the talismanic Thomas Müller up front, to the imposing Manuel Neuer in goal, the German team has an ungodly amount of talent at its disposal, so backing one of the World Cup winners could be a smart bet.
Germany aren’t the only team with a star-studded cast though. Back-to-back winners Spain have ditched the likes of Diego Costa and Fernando Torres in favour of the young Alvaro Morata. You can expect the Juventus striker to bring this season’s searing form into the Euros. Despite having a hit-and-miss season with Chelsea, will Belgium's Eden Hazard flourish under the responsibility of captaining his country? Or will it be the midfield maestro Kevin De Bruyne who will be the Belgians’ star man? Other names to look out for include the French duo of Pogba and Griezmann, and, of course, Cristiano Ronaldo – a man some people say never turns up in big games.
But all these stars play for the big teams, I hear you scream out. Well, history tells us that UEFA won’t go for the plucky star who has dragged his team through the groups and into the semi-finals by scoring seven goals. The star player will come from the team who wins the competition.
Since the introduction of the Player of the Tournament award in 1996, there have been five winners of this prestigious award – all heralding from the country who won the competition. That 100% hit rate makes it seem that the star players who might not be playing in the highest calibre of team (think Wales’ Gareth Bale, Sweden’s Zlatan Ibrahimovic and Poland’s Robert Lewandowski) don’t have a chance. Arguably one of the biggest crimes against football was the decision not to award Andrea Pirlo the gong in 2012. The majestic Italian had waltzed his way around the pitch and effortlessly stroked the ball about, including that audacious Panenka penalty against England, to drag the Azzurri into the final. Yet after a heavy 4-0 loss to Spain in the final, the award was instead given to Andreas Iniesta.
If you look at it from a purely numbers-based perspective though, and don't take into consideration any actual footballing ability or what country you play for, the odds of you being the best player are a whopping 552/1. But if we were you, we wouldn’t go putting the house on Albania's Shkelzen Gashi in a hurry – stick to the big guns and big countries.
After Leicester's phenomenal Premier League triumph in the 2015/16 season, it almost seems the impossible has become possible. It defies logic that a team that performed so poorly one year could go on to lift the title in the next – it's the stuff of fairy tales. It gives every nation going into this year's tournament hope of claiming the top prize, whatever the standard of squad they are taking with them.
With the expansion to 24 teams rather than 16, a couple of nations who could never even dream of reaching the finals have made it – many of whom have convincingly battled their way through qualification and are looking in great shape. And when you look at recent form, the odds could be in their favour.
Taking into account the statistics from qualifying, the team to look out for are Austria. The Austrians’ campaign may have started with a 1-1 draw with Sweden, but they followed that with a ridiculous nine straight victories, sticking away 21 goals. It's like they've won nine hands in a row at blackjack – they've got the winning mind set on the casino floor. With the pace and width of Bayern Munich's David Alba and the goals from veteran striker Marc Janko and Marko Arnautović of Stoke City, expect this team to cause the opposition a lot of problems. Group F is also a rather favourable pool, so if they manage to top the group and get easier round of 16 and quarter-final opponents, we could potentially see Austria in the semi-finals. At the time of writing, they stand at 45/1 for the crown, so it’s perhaps worth a cheeky bet.
But for all the hipster tipsters out there, one rank outsider can possibly win the competition – Iceland. With a population of just under 325,000, the Icelandics were the surprise package during the qualifying stages, toppling the mighty Netherlands in both meetings and pipping them for a place in the tournament. Throw everyone's favourite blond footballing bombshell Eidur Gudjohnsen into the mix and you've got the makings of a dream upset. Yet at 100-1, it seems a little too farfetched that the trophy will be heading back to Iceland. Other honourable mentions for potential underdogs go to Northern Ireland, Wales (also known as Gareth Bale FC) and Albania.
If the history of the Euros has taught us anything though, it is never to write off the underdog.
Back in 1992, Denmark hadn't even qualified for the tournament but due to Yugoslavia being expelled from entering, they were handed a lifeline 10 days before the competition was set to kick off. However, their chances were not fancied at all – so little that Michael Laudrup declined the offer to represent his country and decided to play in flips flops instead. Literally, he went on a beach holiday. After a sublime save by the Great Dane himself, Peter Schmeichel, from a Marco Van Basten penalty in the semis, and a victory over Germany in the final, the Danish took the bacon and the trophy home with them.
Then, 12 years later, we saw similar scenes at Portugal 2004. The home nation had already knocked out England (on penalties, would you believe) and the Netherlands on their way to the final. Stars like Cristiano Ronaldo, Luis Figo and Rui Costa felt the time was right for them to lift the crown. But one team stood in their way, the unlikeliest of all – Greece. And surprise, surprise, it happened again. A goal from Angelos Charisteas (where's he now?) sealed it – plucky Greece had beaten superstars Portugal.
If we take a look at all the European winners, however, what are the chances of the underdog actually winning? After the 14 previous editions, and taking into consideration the usual suspects of European football (your Germanys, Frances, Italys, based on the World Football Elo Ratings ) the winners in 1992 and 2004 are the only two rank outsiders to lift the crown. So out of the 132 participants to take part in the Euros since 1960 (covering the four-, eight- and 16-team formats), only two underdogs have won the competition – a strike rate of 66/1.
So if you’re looking for a sign of fate, then Switzerland are 66/1 for the win at the time of writing…
The 2016 edition looks set to be no different, with an array of players all looking to get their face in the shop window. None more so than young Ante Coric, praised for his Messi-esque skills. The 19-year old has flourished since making the step up into the Croatian national team, with his skill and guile bamboozling players left, right and centre. If he impresses in the tournament, expect the European elite to come knocking, and for Dinamo Zagreb to hold out for a big transfer fee. Another young star looking for that big summer move could be England's John Stones. The Everton centre-back was already the subject of a £40m bid from Chelsea last season, and with pundits claiming he would walk into the Barcelona team (step forward Michael Owen), he'll be on the minds of all the big clubs come the end of the competition.
However, to get yourself this mega-money move, you need to do one thing – play your way into UEFA’s Team of the Tournament.
The best example is to look at two of the more recent Euros; Portugal 2004, and the Austria and Switzerland-hosted 2008 edition. Both events had a 23-man Team of the Tournament, covering a wide range of players rather than just a starting 11. However, when you look at the transfer statistics of those selected in these squads directly after the competition, the proof is in the pudding.
In the six months following Portugal 2004, seven players who were selected among the best 23 moved clubs, including Rooney, Ricardo Carvalho and Henrik Larsson, as well as three players from eventual winners Greece's team. Four years later in Austria and Switzerland, four players moved clubs – most notably the Russian duo of Andrey Arshavin and Roman Pavlyuchenko to the Premier League. None of these were small money moves either – the cash was well and truly splashed to buy these Euro stars.
So, going by these two tournaments, of the 46 best players to compete, 11 managed to play their way into new club colours, giving you odds of just under 5/1. But the big moves don’t always work out – just ask the master of the lob, Karel Poborský.
Just like in a game of blackjack, the teams and players competing are going to need to keep their tactical cards close to their chest and give nothing away if they want to hit the jackpot at Euro 2016 this summer.
But when it comes to the Euros, will predicting this year's winners be like choosing a number on the roulette – pot luck? And which star name will play the perfect poker hand and come out as the Player of the Tournament?
We've taken a look at a few key areas that everyone in the football world is talking about.
VIVE LA FRANCE!
As a nation passionately in love with football, it's no surprise to see France is among the favourites to lift the crown heading into Euro 2016. But will the competition being held on French soil be a help or a hindrance to Les Bleus chances of winning?The French footballing legacy will live long on the global front. Greats like Michel Platini (solely based on his on-field skill, not his recent behaviour with FIFA – sit on the naughty step, Michel), Zinedine Zidane, Thierry Henry and Jean-Pierre Papin are all from the land of wine and cheese and are all immortalised for footballing greatness.
France is a country that’s fiercely proud of its supporting heritage – check out the burly rugby union stars crying their eyes out whilst singing the national anthem. It’s raw emotion – so surely it has to help that this year's European Championship is in their own backyard?
Going by France's recent sporting history, you'd have to say yes.
Cast your mind back to 1998 – the year that Geri left the Spice Girls, Bill Clinton was in the dog house with Hillary, and World Cup fever gripped us all. France '98 is seen as the epitome of high-class football. Not only was it the pinnacle of talent on the pitch, but it also had a great supporting video game and Dario G's 'Carnaval de Paris' as its anthem. But forget Ronaldo and the Brazilian flair, there was only ever one team that was going to win – France. The home support, and exceptionally good squad, led them to a 3-0 win over their South American counterparts. France had won the World Cup at home – a feat achieved in only six of the 20 editions. But that feat was achieved on the global scale of a 32-team competition, can any team make the same bold claim in the Euros?
Out of the 14 European Championship tournaments, only three home nations have won the trophy – Spain in 1964, the Italians in 1968 and, you guessed it, France in 1984.
The previously-mentioned Platini was the catalyst for this French success, scoring nine goals in the competition – six more than any other player! Back then, the tournament only had eight teams competing, but heavyweights such as West Germany, Spain and Portugal all took part.
When we look at the stats, France has won three major trophies – two European Championships and one World Cup. Two of these triumphs have taken place in Paris city centre – the other came at Euro 2000, held in neighbouring Belgium and the Netherlands - hardly a long trek from the French border.
Take into consideration the major tournaments when France has been the home nation, and you start to think it's written in the stars for a Les Bleus win – hosted four, won two. A 50% win ratio in home tournaments is very, very impressive – as decent a bet as going for red or black on roulette.
For us, it'd be hard to see France not getting to at least the semi-finals. With a relatively easy group (Switzerland, Romania and Albania – nothing to frighten a football powerhouse) you can expect them to coast into the quarters in a convincing fashion. But from there on in, it's down to the home crowds to get them going.
And with over 80,000 fans bellowing out 'La Marseillaise', you'd be backing the boys in blue against any opposition.
THE KING OF THE TOURNAMENT
Football is a team sport and, to use the old cliché, 'there is no I in team'. But ask any player competing at Euro 2016 if they wanted to win the individual prize of Player of the Tournament, and they wouldn't think twice about jumping at the opportunity. Going down in footballing folklore is the dream of any player, so who's in with a shout this year?Germany aren’t the only team with a star-studded cast though. Back-to-back winners Spain have ditched the likes of Diego Costa and Fernando Torres in favour of the young Alvaro Morata. You can expect the Juventus striker to bring this season’s searing form into the Euros. Despite having a hit-and-miss season with Chelsea, will Belgium's Eden Hazard flourish under the responsibility of captaining his country? Or will it be the midfield maestro Kevin De Bruyne who will be the Belgians’ star man? Other names to look out for include the French duo of Pogba and Griezmann, and, of course, Cristiano Ronaldo – a man some people say never turns up in big games.
But all these stars play for the big teams, I hear you scream out. Well, history tells us that UEFA won’t go for the plucky star who has dragged his team through the groups and into the semi-finals by scoring seven goals. The star player will come from the team who wins the competition.
Since the introduction of the Player of the Tournament award in 1996, there have been five winners of this prestigious award – all heralding from the country who won the competition. That 100% hit rate makes it seem that the star players who might not be playing in the highest calibre of team (think Wales’ Gareth Bale, Sweden’s Zlatan Ibrahimovic and Poland’s Robert Lewandowski) don’t have a chance. Arguably one of the biggest crimes against football was the decision not to award Andrea Pirlo the gong in 2012. The majestic Italian had waltzed his way around the pitch and effortlessly stroked the ball about, including that audacious Panenka penalty against England, to drag the Azzurri into the final. Yet after a heavy 4-0 loss to Spain in the final, the award was instead given to Andreas Iniesta.
If you look at it from a purely numbers-based perspective though, and don't take into consideration any actual footballing ability or what country you play for, the odds of you being the best player are a whopping 552/1. But if we were you, we wouldn’t go putting the house on Albania's Shkelzen Gashi in a hurry – stick to the big guns and big countries.
CAN WE REALISTICALLY EXPECT AN UPSET?
Just like in all sporting events, everyone loves the story of the underdog. But could an outsider be in with a shot at Euro glory come 10th July?After Leicester's phenomenal Premier League triumph in the 2015/16 season, it almost seems the impossible has become possible. It defies logic that a team that performed so poorly one year could go on to lift the title in the next – it's the stuff of fairy tales. It gives every nation going into this year's tournament hope of claiming the top prize, whatever the standard of squad they are taking with them.
Taking into account the statistics from qualifying, the team to look out for are Austria. The Austrians’ campaign may have started with a 1-1 draw with Sweden, but they followed that with a ridiculous nine straight victories, sticking away 21 goals. It's like they've won nine hands in a row at blackjack – they've got the winning mind set on the casino floor. With the pace and width of Bayern Munich's David Alba and the goals from veteran striker Marc Janko and Marko Arnautović of Stoke City, expect this team to cause the opposition a lot of problems. Group F is also a rather favourable pool, so if they manage to top the group and get easier round of 16 and quarter-final opponents, we could potentially see Austria in the semi-finals. At the time of writing, they stand at 45/1 for the crown, so it’s perhaps worth a cheeky bet.
But for all the hipster tipsters out there, one rank outsider can possibly win the competition – Iceland. With a population of just under 325,000, the Icelandics were the surprise package during the qualifying stages, toppling the mighty Netherlands in both meetings and pipping them for a place in the tournament. Throw everyone's favourite blond footballing bombshell Eidur Gudjohnsen into the mix and you've got the makings of a dream upset. Yet at 100-1, it seems a little too farfetched that the trophy will be heading back to Iceland. Other honourable mentions for potential underdogs go to Northern Ireland, Wales (also known as Gareth Bale FC) and Albania.
If the history of the Euros has taught us anything though, it is never to write off the underdog.
Back in 1992, Denmark hadn't even qualified for the tournament but due to Yugoslavia being expelled from entering, they were handed a lifeline 10 days before the competition was set to kick off. However, their chances were not fancied at all – so little that Michael Laudrup declined the offer to represent his country and decided to play in flips flops instead. Literally, he went on a beach holiday. After a sublime save by the Great Dane himself, Peter Schmeichel, from a Marco Van Basten penalty in the semis, and a victory over Germany in the final, the Danish took the bacon and the trophy home with them.
Then, 12 years later, we saw similar scenes at Portugal 2004. The home nation had already knocked out England (on penalties, would you believe) and the Netherlands on their way to the final. Stars like Cristiano Ronaldo, Luis Figo and Rui Costa felt the time was right for them to lift the crown. But one team stood in their way, the unlikeliest of all – Greece. And surprise, surprise, it happened again. A goal from Angelos Charisteas (where's he now?) sealed it – plucky Greece had beaten superstars Portugal.
If we take a look at all the European winners, however, what are the chances of the underdog actually winning? After the 14 previous editions, and taking into consideration the usual suspects of European football (your Germanys, Frances, Italys, based on the World Football Elo Ratings ) the winners in 1992 and 2004 are the only two rank outsiders to lift the crown. So out of the 132 participants to take part in the Euros since 1960 (covering the four-, eight- and 16-team formats), only two underdogs have won the competition – a strike rate of 66/1.
So if you’re looking for a sign of fate, then Switzerland are 66/1 for the win at the time of writing…
SMALL TEAM OBSCURITY TO BIG-NAME TRANSFERS
The European Championships provides one of the biggest stages for a player to showcase their talent. Wayne Rooney proved his worth back in 2004, while Dennis Bergkamp got on the map thanks to his performances at Sweden '92 and Marcel Desailly showed his defensive solidity in 1996 for France. All of these memorable performances led to one thing – a transfer to the big time.However, to get yourself this mega-money move, you need to do one thing – play your way into UEFA’s Team of the Tournament.
The best example is to look at two of the more recent Euros; Portugal 2004, and the Austria and Switzerland-hosted 2008 edition. Both events had a 23-man Team of the Tournament, covering a wide range of players rather than just a starting 11. However, when you look at the transfer statistics of those selected in these squads directly after the competition, the proof is in the pudding.
In the six months following Portugal 2004, seven players who were selected among the best 23 moved clubs, including Rooney, Ricardo Carvalho and Henrik Larsson, as well as three players from eventual winners Greece's team. Four years later in Austria and Switzerland, four players moved clubs – most notably the Russian duo of Andrey Arshavin and Roman Pavlyuchenko to the Premier League. None of these were small money moves either – the cash was well and truly splashed to buy these Euro stars.
So, going by these two tournaments, of the 46 best players to compete, 11 managed to play their way into new club colours, giving you odds of just under 5/1. But the big moves don’t always work out – just ask the master of the lob, Karel Poborský.
Just like in a game of blackjack, the teams and players competing are going to need to keep their tactical cards close to their chest and give nothing away if they want to hit the jackpot at Euro 2016 this summer.